Apra Notes: Takeaways and New Questions in Search of the "Truth"

Even though #aprapd2019 is over, the learning continues for me. As I reflect back on the sessions and conversations, I have some valuable takeaways, but I also have even more thoughts and questions that will lead to more discovery. 

The “journey” has only just begun.

I continue to seek the "truth.” And for me that means finding the constituents most likely and best able to make a financial impact on the mission of my organization.

As I mentioned in a previous post – most, if not all organizations are attempting to answer that question. Most are doing it differently and although some have similarities, each is unique. Despite the many different approaches, it appears each are finding some level of success.

The use of analytics to inform decisions has never been greater. This is a good thing.
Development teams are now employing data analysts and data scientists more than ever before. Also a good thing.

I have no doubt that the use of data is helping organizations be more strategic and even more successful than ever before. Again, this is a really good thing.

So what's my problem?

My problem is that if everyone is doing it a little bit differently - how do we know who is doing it the best?

You might ask "Is that important?"

It is to me. 

Why?

Because the amount of money being raised across the nonprofit world hasn't changed. Philanthropy has basically stayed at 2% of the gross national product (GDP) for the past several decades.
Sure some organizations are setting new records, but the overall fundraising needle hasn't moved.

And what if the organizations raising more money could raise even more money if they found that "truth" I keep referring to? How much time would they save? How many more dollars could they raise?

I have no doubt organizations embracing and implementing analytics into their fundraising efforts are more successful than ever. Those that aren't, are doing a disservice to the organizations they work for (in my opinion).

So, I am back to the question of who is doing it best? Is there one absolute best way? Is there?
Are organizations using outside companies like EverTrue, GG&A, Blackbaud or any number of companies outperforming those that are doing it in house? I really have no idea. 

The funny thing is all of these outside companies are also all doing it differently.

Are you feeling as crazy as I am yet?

Some of you may be thinking I am making a bigger deal out of this than I need to. After all, we should all be pleased that more and more organizations are incorporating data analytics into their processes.

So, let me tell you why I am having this conversation. 

First of all, we all have bias and everyone out there doing analytics has their own set of biases. Each construct of a model has bias. That bias shows up in the selection of the limited number of data points being used to develop a model.

Secondly, how many data points is enough? The most I’ve heard any one organization is using is around 30. Is that enough? How do you decide which ones to settle on? How are those decisions being made?

Don’t answer just yet.

The way I see it, even though organizations are seeing better results, I keep asking myself – “What would the results look like if we could minimize the bias AND increase the number of attributes we use to build a model? Would that impact the results? Would this allow me to identify the constituents truly most likely and most capable of having an impact on my organization's mission (the truth I seek)? What would the return on investment be?"

I believe I may have the answer. At least the answer that makes the most sense to me at this point in time (again, I'm constantly learning).

Machine learning/Artificial Intelligence can make this all possible. In fact it already is.

I know this because I’ve been having on-going conversations with Nathan Chappell of Futurus Group. They’re using machine learning to build models to determine the most “grateful” people in an organization’s database.

They have clients where the models are based on the “low end” of 400+ attributes and on the high end - more than 900 attributes. As I understand things, the results they’re seeing are 4X in an increase in what the organizations had done previously. That's data that piques my interest in a big way.

And get this – the model is updated daily. As new data is added or the data changes – machine learning updates the model. Every. Single. Day. It also continues to learn and refine the model every day through "deep learning."

You see, my quest to find the truth started long before I ever got to Apra. It started when I first l learned of AI for development when Gravyty arrived on the scene. That lead me to more conversations with Gravyty’s Lindsey Athanasiou and then City of Hope’s Nathan Fay. It’s grown from there. I've had conversations with Blackbaud's Carrie Cobb and Lawrence Henze. I've talked to just about anyone willing to and able to discuss this subject.

I’ve been conducting my own research. I’ve been evaluating it all. I’ve been asking tons of questions. As it so happens – Nathan Chappell has been the person I’ve had the most conversations with because Futurus is doing the things that most directly reflect what I want to accomplish (that truth I keep speaking of). I’ve also had conversations with David Lawson, who has also helped me to make sense of it all. All prior to, during and post Apra. David always helps put things in perspective for me.

You know, I expected to find my colleagues at Apra eager to talk about AI and machine learning. That just didn’t happen very much or I should say - nearly as often as I'd like. If those conversations were taking place – I wasn’t aware of them.

As I sat in each session at Apra where universities talked about analytics or what specific things they were doing to model their data – I kept coming back to the things I’ve learned about machine learning and deep learning.

I kept coming back to the fact that there isn’t a limit on the number of attributes a machine could use and through machine learning – patterns could be detected that we as human beings wouldn’t see.

Again, I’m not an expert on any of this, but I believe I can find the “truth” I’m looking for through machine learning. Apra helped make that clear to me in an indirect way.

I want to be perfectly clear here. The fact that more and more organizations are using data analytics to increase their fundraising is truly a great thing. I don't want to diminish the talents and contributions of the data scientists and data analysts out there. I just see the enormous potential machine learning can add to this process. The impact could move the fundraising needle from 2% of the GDP to something bigger. The impact would be monumental.

I know, I know - you want to know how much all of this costs, right? 

Well, that's the wrong question. What you should be asking is “What is the return on investment?” Think big picture. Think impact. 

I’m not an expert on machine learning and I’m not even an expert on data analytics, but what I’ve seen and learned about machine learning and AI has made an impression on me. I’m hopeful that this conversation has piqued your interest enough that you too will begin to do your own due diligence. I hope that we can all begin to have conversations; really meaningful conversations about how machine learning can impact our work and make us much more successful. I believe this could be the tool that propels fundraising across our sector to never-before-seen heights. 

The private sector has been using this technology for years; in fact, many years. We are beginning to see AI applied in a variety of ways in the non-profit sector. More and more companies are using it - companies we are all familiar with and some we are not. Undoubtedly more will appear on the horizon soon.

I believe that five years from now – people who didn’t investigate and invest in machine learning will see that they really missed out on something transformational. Don’t ignore the impact machine learning is having right now. Today.

After reading all of this, you still might not think it's important because after all, your organization just raised the most money it has ever raised. Maybe you're comfortable with where you're at. That's understandable.

But think about what our keynote speaker at Apra had to say about that. Michelle Polar said "The enemy of success is comfort." Are you comfortable with your fundraising? Should you be? Would you like to see philanthropy's percentage of the GDP grow beyond 2%?

If you want to see greater change and greater impact, I invite you to join me on this mission to find the truth.
 
Want to learn more? Ready to start your own journey of learning?

Read this: "How to explain machine learning in plain English."

Listen to David Lawson’s podcast from Jen Fila’s Chat Bytes – “How Big Data can translate into Big Good.”

Listen to Nathan Chappell’s podcast with NPO Innovators, who interviewed him about what he’s doing with Futurus. You can pick up Nathan's talk at the 12:30 mark.

Watch Nathan Chappell’s Tedx Talk on “Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Generosity.”

Again, this is just the beginning. I still have so much more to learn about all of this. Consider this an invitation to join me on this journey. The more people we have learning about this – the more likely all the right questions will be asked and the better we can improve our understanding. We really need to ask the tough questions together.

Who’s in? 

To quote Michelle Poler once again - you need to ask yourself "What's the best that can happen?"

The Times They Are A-Changin' - Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Is Changing The Way We Think About Fundraising

In 1963, Bob Dylan wrote the classic song “The Times They Are A-Changin” and even though that song is 56 years old (*gulp*), it’s still relevant today.  I feel it and I definitely see it happening in the non-profit world and more specifically in the fundraising sector of that world.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) or Machine Learning (as those intimately involved in the field call it) is having a monumental impact in the fundraising arena right now. 

Some view AI as something “new” – but the funny thing is AI has been around longer than that Bob Dylan song.  It’s just somewhat new to fundraising. 

The conversations surrounding machine learning is interesting to say the least. Some want to dismiss it.  Some want to make light of it.  Some are confused by it and there are some who are even anxious about its impact.  

Fortunately, some have embraced it. 

We all know that the non-profit world is often slow to adapt to change.  A vast majority of NPO’s continue to fundraise the way they’ve always done it.  Even though we all hate the phrase “this is the way we’ve always done things” – this still seems to be prevalent throughout the fundraising sector.

I am by no means what-so-ever, an expert in AI and machine learning.  I am intensely curious about it though and I continue to do my own homework in trying to understand it all.  Through this process – I have read, heard and seen things that make me shake my head in disappointment.  There are thought leaders in the development field who are naïve about AI and yet they are quick to give their opinion on it; opinions that are not based in fact from what I can tell.

I would guess that most prospect development professionals and those associated with the field are naturally curious.  That’s a good thing.  So, when I see things being written and said that show a gross misunderstanding about how machine learning can impact fundraising, I cringe.  I am dismayed and at times even a little angry.

I’m not going to call anyone out here.  

Instead – I’m going to challenge anyone in the development arena to do their own homework.  It doesn’t matter if you are a prospect researcher, a fundraiser, a data analyst or hold any other position in the field – you need to investigate.  Explore.  Ask questions.  Talk to the experts. Seek out the truth on how machine learning can help your organization raise more money.

It doesn’t even matter if your organization is headed in this direction.  You need to understand it so that when that opportunity comes (and it will) you will be prepared to talk about it intelligently.  This is especially true if you’re in the prospect development field.

If you’re a part of the PD tribe – you know we’re often the ones who learn about innovation and new technologies first.  We’re the ones who introduce these things to our leadership teams and our front line fundraisers.

I know you might have expected me to share what I've learned so far, myself.  I'm just not ready to do that.  At some point, I hope to do that - but for now, I invite you to go on your own journey. This is me, poking my head up from the process to say - "Hey, some of you are doing our community a disservice with what you're saying about AI."

At the end of the day – it’s not about us.  It’s about the organizations we serve. 

The fact that giving, as a percentage of the GDP in the U.S. has been stagnant for a while now means that our industry is ripe for change.  I believe that AI and machine learning can impact that bottom line and transform the way we think about how to raise money.

How that’s done isn’t something I’m totally qualified to speak to just yet.  I’m still learning.  But I see it and I feel it.

You and I both know that NPO’s are slow to change.  That doesn’t mean we can’t do our part to help our individual organizations realize they need to change. 

Machine learning is coming to the non-profit world like a tidal wave.  So… with that in mind – let’s go back to that Bob Dylan song…

Come gather 'round, people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You'll be drenched to the bone
If your time to you is worth savin'
And you better start swimmin'
Or you'll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin'
 

Five years from now – those that don’t embrace AI as a tool to drive their fundraising efforts are going to wonder how they missed it.  Don’t be that person. Be ready.  Have your surf board in hand and be ready to ride that wave!

Fundraising is Hard Work. Every Fundraiser Needs That "Someone" in Their Corner

If you work at any one thing long enough, you get to experience both success and failure. Hopefully, you learn what works and what doesn’t work. If you are a slow learner like me, it may take you years to figure it all out, but once you do – you gain a great deal of confidence in how to tackle your work.

I’ve worked in prospect development for 27 years. Long before it was even called prospect development.  I’ve worked at six non-profits which includes three universities, two hospitals and one cause specific organization. I think I’ve learned a thing or two about development and fundraising as a whole.  That includes the people who fill the various roles in the fundraising effort.

My life experiences mean something.  At least I hope they do.  There are times when my head becomes so full of ideas and thoughts about fundraising that I feel like I’m going to explode. 

There’s a scene in the original Rocky, where Mickey (Burgess Meredith) goes to Rocky’s apartment to ask him if he can be Rocky’s manager.  He says “I have all this knowledge up here (pointing to his head) and I want to give it you.”

That’s how I feel sometimes; maybe even a lot of the time. I want my fundraisers to benefit from my having had a front row seat in the development arena for all these years.  I want the organization I work for to be successful and also benefit from my years of experience.

I’m at that point in my life where I know what I know. 

I’m certain I understand what it takes to be an effective fundraiser and what it takes for an organization to achieve its fundraising goals.  I can spend a short amount of time with a fundraiser and know if they “get it” or if they’re just going through the motions.  I’m confident that if I’m working with the right group of fundraisers, we can achieve a very high level of success.

Let me explain.

First of all, fundraising is hard work.  It’s extremely hard work.  It’s challenging and it can wear you down if you let it.  That’s because the effort you have to put forward has to be monumental in scale.  Some people never understand that and fail to embrace it.  They start to look for short cuts and an easier way or worse – they shy away from it all together.

Now, I’m all for finding an easier way – but what that usually means to me is finding a more strategic way of doing things.  Even then – the work is still going to be hard and the effort is still going to be on a monumental scale.

Again, you can’t escape that. 

Fundraisers are going to have to make a lot of calls just to get appointments and they’re going to have to do a lot of qualification work just to find those individuals whose passion and ability to give align with the mission of their organizations.

This is where prospect development can help.  It’s all about the story; the story behind the donor and the story tied to their giving.  This is what we know how to do. It’s the core of what we do.  We are the dot connectors.  We’re the one who can make sense of a large database and help a fundraiser focus on the right people. 

What we can’t do is provide you with a magical list of names that are sure to give and give significantly.  No one can do that.  No one.

However, we can make the process easier, but it’s still not going to be “easy.”  We can help you be more strategic, but you still have to put in a great deal of effort.  It’s still going to be hard and somewhat overwhelming, but we know how to give you a pathway to success.

I keep emphasizing how hard the work is.  I do that because I don’t ever want you to underestimate that. 

Every donor is unique.  Every donor’s story is special.  Our job (and when I say “our” job, I mean yours and mine) is to uncover each donor’s story.  That takes time. That takes effort.  That takes an approach that’s authentic and unique to each and every donor.

More times than not – we aren’t going to learn the story and in those cases – our chances for success will be slim.  That’s okay.  We’ll move on from that and on to the next story. 

Sound overwhelming?

Well, it is.  But when we find that special donor – whose story and whose passion aligns with our organization’s mission, it’s going to be magical.  It may even be transformational.

The goal for prospect development has always been to find the people in our databased (and in rare occasions outside of it) who’s passion, interests and desire to give match the mission of our organizations and the projects and programs that sustain it.  That group can’t be identified by the assets they hold.  They can’t be identified by the titles they have and they can’t even necessarily be identified by the gifts they’ve given to other organizations.

Those things can be factors, but it’s not the best way to segment your database.  Some fundraisers have a hard time accepting that. 

We’re not necessarily looking for the wealthy.  I think way too many fundraisers think that major gift bar is higher than it really is.  I believe every donor should be given the opportunity to be a major donor.  And those donors come in all shapes and sizes, but at their core they have “something” in common. 

We are looking for a very specific individual who has not only has the ability to give, but also has an affinity for what we are doing.  They’re likely to be very similar to others in our database who are already giving major gifts, but not necessarily similar in the way you might think.

Their titles are irrelevant.  Their hard asset data is even irrelevant.

They have very specific attributes that aren’t on their resumes or in their LinkedIn profile.  And most importantly, those attributes are specific to our organizations.  Our donors (yours and mine) have a certain DNA and the more people we can find with a similar DNA, the more likely we are to find success in our fundraising.

And then there’s the timing of it all.  So many variables have to come together in order for us to achieve our fundraising goals.  There is definitely a process behind it all.  I say that knowing that a great many fundraisers don’t necessarily like process. 

Prospect Development can help with that.  We can do a lot of things.  In fact, we can do so much more if you just trust us enough to let us.

Have I piqued your interest?

I’ll end this post here.  The “how” of all of this is for another day.  The take-away from this post is all about how difficult fundraising is and how important it is to have a process and a strategy in place to make things a little bit easier.  There’s a science to it all and we’ll jump into that next time.